President Obama re-focused the nation on improving student access/success on January 8th when he announced America's College Promise (1), a free community college scheme modeled on the initial success of a similar program in Tennessee (2). While it's too early to measure intended and unintended outcomes of the Tennessee program, it's clear that the program has wildly exceeded application projections and is beginning to change student behavior.
Many details of President Obama's plan have not yet been released and the potential impact could depend in large part on creating a bipartisan coalition in a United States Congress deeply fragmented along party lines.
- Does the program increase Return on Investment (ROI) for students?
- There are a number of mechanisms for increasing the ROI of higher education. They include:
- Creating incentives for students to select less expensive options. This is one of the the fundamental premises of the proposal; students are more likely to select community college, a less expensive alternative than many public, private, and for-profit universities. Student ROI increases by decreasing the amount of money spent on the degree.
- Increasing student outcomes and graduation rates. Colleges can dramatically improve student ROI by giving them the best possible chance of graduating which delivers the degree to the student and correlates with increased earning potential (3).
- Does the program increase student access?
- While much of the coverage immediately following the announcement centered on potential increase in student access, significant questions have arisen regarding whether the plan would positively impact access, particularly for low-income students, and by what mechanism. For the overwhelming majority of low-income students, community college tuition is already paid in full through the existing Federal Pell Grant program.
- Three key facets of the proposed program have the potential to directly impact student access:
- As announced, the program will be open to traditional and post-traditional students.
- As announced, the program will be open to full and part-time students.
- As announced, the program will be open to students in certificate programs and courses that lead to associate/bachelor degree.
- Does the program improve student outcomes?
- As announced, the program would require students to maintain a minimum GPA of 2.5. This caveat seems designed to promote student outcomes as the minimum expectation remains relatively high while allowing for students to struggle for a period and still continue to make progress toward graduation.
- In order to significantly improve student outcomes, the program must address numerous additional reasons students do not complete their college degree. In a paper published in 2010, InsideTrack found that managing commitments, not finances, was the #1 reason students were unable to complete their degree. Efforts focused exclusively on the cost of the degree may not significantly improve outcomes for the 74.1% of students who do not complete their degree for reasons other than financial strain (4).
- Cost of attendance is one of the biggest obstacles to student outcomes but the Tennessee program as currently constituted does not cover these costs which are in addition to tuition and include expenses like books, housing, and transportation. As tuition for the overwhelming majority of low-income community college students is already covered through the Federal Pell Grant, a successful program could seek to implement strategies gleaned from New York's successful Accelerated Study in Associate Program (ASAP) which helped students with cost of attendance expenses such as transportation (5). While New York's ASAP model required $3900 in additional support per participating student (6), the program achieved a remarkable three-year completion rate of 57% and one study showed that "ASAP can double the number of graduates in a three-year period and do it at less cost per graduate than the conventional program without ASAP (7)."
- Does the program strengthen a nationwide, college-going culture?
- As noted, the best model for the potential impact of a national program is the one already being implemented in Tennessee. The initial results concerning the impact of free community college on building a college-going culture are encouraging; in its first year, over 90% of Tennessee high school seniors applied for the program and applications exceeded projections by nearly 2:1. It's virtually impossible to predict the potential impact on the college-going culture if such results were replicated nationwide but comparisons to the cultural impact of the GI Bill on college attendance and graduation seem apt (8).
- A number of studies of the P-12 system have already demonstrated that, "while students’ own socioeconomic backgrounds have a big effect on their achievement, so do the socioeconomic backgrounds of their peers (9)." The implication for student outcomes is, "poor students at mixed-income schools do better than poor students at high-poverty schools." In 2014, the New York Times reported that more the majority of community college students are low-income (10). If community colleges across the country become more economically diverse, one potential outcome is that student outcomes across socioeconomic categories would improve as has been demonstrated in the P-12 system.
- How would a national program designed to increase community college enrollment impact other higher education sectors?
- It's too early to tell. Initial reporting has focused primarily on the potential impact of free community college on for-profit schools (11). Many such reports predict that free community college would undermine for-profit schools which frequently deliver online programs to low-income students. Data will soon be available from Tennessee which will could help clarify whether demand for for-profit colleges is elastic (due to price, students on balance leave for-profit schools to attend community colleges) or inelastic (students attend community college and for-profit schools in approximately the same proportions because their decisions were based primarily on other criteria). As predicted by many, the business model of for-profit colleges may prove to be very responsive to price competition in the market but it's still too early to tell.
- Free community college could impact public and private universities as well. Again, the potential impact is large if students are, in fact, already choosing based on cost or if the difference in price caused students to choose based on price more frequently. The effect would likely be much smaller if students are choosing based on other criteria such as perceived advantages in academic rigor, student support, extra-curricular activities, etc.
- How would a national program impact ongoing efforts in Oregon?
- It's too early to tell. According to the few details released with the proposal's initial roll out, participating states would contribute 25% of costs (12). The state of Oregon would need more details of President Obama's proposal and amendments on its way through the United States Congress.
- Oregon is concurrently reviewing the viability of a homegrown solution. State Senator Mark Hass has proposed a free community college scheme for Oregon. According to the Oregonian, "Unlike Obama's, Hass's proposal is a 'last dollar' plan, meaning students would have to apply for federal and state financial aid and use any they receive to pay for community college tuition. Only after that money is collected and the student pays the $50 co-pay would the state step in to make the rest of tuition free (13)."
While this is an exciting time to be evaluating higher education policy, there simply aren't enough details yet to accurately predict the potential impact(s) of the multi-billion dollar America's College Promise program.
The program will be a success based on the extent to which it increases student ROI, increases student access, improves student outcomes, and strengthens the college-going culture.
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